More than three months after the US and Israel first began their war with Iran, the White House and the Iranian regime have agreed a framework deal to bring about a more long-term end to hostilities. "Let the oil flow!" US President Donald Trump said in a social media post heralding the agreement, which he said would include the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping. "Ships are starting to move," Trump declared later on Monday, "loaded up with oil, out of the Strait of Hormuz" which he said was "totally safe, secure and pristine".
But BBC Verify has been checking ship-tracking data which appears to show that traffic levels remain low in the strait, despite the announcement. According to ship tracking website MarineTraffic, only two vessels with active location trackers have exited the waterway since Sunday - a bulk carrier and a tanker. The strait has been closed to most shipping traffic since 28 February, with only limited numbers of vessels friendly to Iran able to pass through. Hundreds of vessels have been stuck in the Gulf, with the risk of sea mines or drone strikes driving up the danger to crews and preventing safe passage.
“Only two vessels have left the Strait of Hormuz despite Trump's claim ships are moving, as experts warn oil flows will take months to return.”
Neil Shearing, group chief economist for Capital Economics, said it remained to be seen whether the latest deal "represents a fragile truce or a durable settlement". He added that it was likely it will "take some time for oil flows through the Strait to return to pre-war levels". "Even if ships now have safe passage, tankers are in the wrong place, oil production/refining facilities need to get up to full capacity, and questions over the cost and availability of insurance for ships traversing the Strait will remain," he said.
Even before the agreement, during the ongoing ceasefire, shipping companies were largely reluctant to try to move their vessels out of the strait – and getting those vessels out will be their first focus. Denmark's Maersk is the world's second biggest shipping line and has five ships that have been stuck in the Gulf because of this conflict. The firm said it was too early to assess how the agreement "will impact logistics", and that for now, there is no change to its operations in the region. German shipping giant Hapag-Lloyd has four ships stuck in the strait and hopes to get them out over the weekend, once the deal is signed and any remaining mines are cleared. The Middle East crisis sent global oil prices soaring as the conflict effectively closed one of the world's key water transport routes for oil, liquid natural gas and other essential commodities, limiting global supplies. But experts warn a return to normal shipping through the strait will take time, and the impact of the war will continue to affect the global economy for potentially months to come.