More than $50bn (£37.4bn) in wagers are expected to be placed on this year's Fifa Men's World Cup, making it the biggest betting event in history — a surge driven by the expansion of the tournament to 48 teams and more than 100 matches over six weeks, compared with 64 in 2022.
Analysts at financial services firm Macquarie forecast that punters will place bets worth around $500m per match, a sharp increase from the $35bn wagered during the 2022 World Cup in Qatar. Macquarie analyst Chad Benyon said the jump is primarily due to the increase in the number of teams, but also because of favourable time zones in hosts the US, Canada and Mexico, which will boost global viewership and fuel demand among punters in Europe, Latin America and Africa.
“World Cup expected to see record $50bn in bets, driven by expanded format and US market growth.”
Another driver is the growing sports betting market in the US, where around 65% of the population can now gamble on sports, up from 40% in 2022. That means this is the first World Cup on which a majority of Americans can place bets. However, Benyon warned that the tournament could be a flash in the pan for betting giants if they cannot convert one-off punters into “repeat, multi-sport bettors”, adding that those with casino platforms on their website stand to benefit most.
Gambling awareness groups have warned of the risks. Les Bernal, national director of Stop Predatory Gambling, said “hundreds of thousands of people across the world, especially young men, will suffer life-changing debt and financial distress” because of gambling during the World Cup. “99 out of 100 sports bettors lose money in the long-term,” Bernal said, adding that “the business model for commercialised sport gambling operators is completely based upon the people who have been turned into addicted gamblers, an addiction that causes victims to die by suicide at a rate unlike any other.” He called for politicians globally to act to curtail addictive forms of gambling and prevent consumers being “fleeced”.
UK-based gambling reform campaigner Matt Zarb-Cousin said punters betting on the World Cup will be “cross-promoted more addictive casino content”. A National Centre for Social Research report found that, in the UK, 79% of gambling company winnings came from the top 10% of spenders — those who wagered at least £5,639 in a year.
Meanwhile, the Betting and Gaming Council (BGC), the UK's gambling trade body, has taken aim at tech giants over black market advertising. In an open letter seen by City AM, BGC chief executive Grainne Hurst warned major tech platforms to crack down on illegal betting adverts ahead of the World Cup. The BGC has also defended the regulated industry, with a spokesperson saying: “The UK has some of the strongest gambling regulations and consumer protections in the world, including age…”. The full measures were not detailed in the sources.
As the World Cup kicks off, the competing forces of commercial opportunity and harm prevention are set to collide on a global stage, with billions of pounds riding on every match.