Two of the tournament’s co-hosts, Mexico and the United States, have already booked their place in the last 32 with back-to-back victories – a boon to organisers in terms of keeping home crowds invested. But for the remaining 46 teams, navigating the expanded 48-team World Cup to the knockout stage has become a dizzying puzzle.
The tournament, which for the first time features three host countries and four different time zones, sees 16 teams eliminated after the group stage. Thirty-two nations advance: the top two from each of the 12 groups, plus the eight best third-placed teams. That creates 495 possible combinations of matches involving those third-placed teams, according to BBC Sport.
“Mexico and US already through as expanded World Cup introduces head-to-head tiebreakers and eight third-placed teams advance.”
Tiebreakers have also been overhauled. Goal difference, the preferred method since 1970, has been replaced by head-to-head results – the system long favoured by Uefa. If two teams are level on points, the winner of their group-stage match ranks higher. Where multiple teams are tied, a mini-league is created, removing results against the remaining sides. If still level, Fifa’s Team Conduct Score (TCS) – a disciplinary record deducting points for cards – comes into play.
BBC Sport has developed a predictor tool that updates in-game to illustrate the schedule all the way to the final, while the Guardian offers an interactive bracketology feature to chart a path to victory.
On the pitch, the drama continues. Germany needed a late show from super-sub Deniz Undav to beat Ivory Coast 2-1 in Toronto, while the Netherlands delivered a devastating 5-1 rout of Sweden with Brian Brobbey and Cody Gakpo starring. England, meanwhile, face fitness worries ahead of their clash with Ghana: Bukayo Saka was pictured training alone, carrying a niggling injury, as the group stage intensifies.